Is the bottom in?

Vix is signalling that we are very close to the bottom. Vix after spiking way above its 20 day BB pulled back across its 10 dma. That's bearish for Vix and bullish for equities.

As well, the Yen spiked up to its highs from January and then sold off, putting in a shooting star candle, and that's bearish for Yen and bullish for equities.

Treasuries continued to sell today, although possibly a bullish candle, but IEF's BB's are pointing down, which is bearish for IEF and bullish for equites.

So it look the bottom is in -- almost. To confirm it, we need Vix to break its 20 dma (singalling that there's an uptrend in equities) and we need the put/call ratio to roll over decisively.

For all that to happen, we need one more up day in equities -- maybe AAPL will seal the deal and confirm the bottom

Vix - put/call ratios - Yen - IEF

After Vix's move well above its 20 dma, it has pulled back, as expected. Now the question is whether this pullback is the start of down trend. The next barrier for Vix is its 10 dma, and after that the 20 dma.

The put/call ratios have yet to turn over -- actually the equity-only ratio looks like it topped last Thursday, but I'd like to see a more decisive move down before saying that it's called a top.

The Yen are moving sideways, neither bullish nor bearish, while Treasuries have been selling off, which is bullish.

It's promising that the bottom is in.

Vix - put/call ratios - Yen - IEF

In the past, when Vix spiked outside of its 20 day BB, it marked bottoms. This rule broke down last October during the forced liquidation, but even then, it was pretty accurate at marking short term bottoms.

Yen and TLT/IEF helps confirm these bottoms, although these two instruments are not as tightly correlated, often turning before or after the bottom.

The put/call ratios can also help track these bottoms, with the 9 EMA of each rolling over at important turns.

Vix spiked across its 20 day BB last Thursday, and pulled back on Friday. Both Yen and IEF rolled over at the end of last week, which gave a good bottom signal. The put/call ratios started to roll over, but have not followed through today, and we are still in search of our bottom.

But Vix is above its 20 day BB. Bottoms happen at these levels. Unless we enter another period of forced liquidation like last October, the bottom is near.

Vix is starting to look toppy

Vix today spiked up to its upper 20 day BB and then reversed. Vix often reverses from these levels, although a change in trend usually requires a spike across the 20 day BB.

Vix is also above its 10 day BB. Reversals happen from these levels as well, but the BB can also act as support.

Both treasuries and the Yen were up today, but not decisively so. The trend in all indicators is up, but Vix is looking toppy.

Today's Vix candle might be hinting at a reversal, but its wick is shorter than its body. The alternate interpretation is to view Vix as an equities overbought/oversold indicator, with the pullback in Vix today relieving some of the overselling.

While the overall trend in these indicators is still up (and the trend in equities is still down), Vix, TLT and the Yen are hinting that a retracement may be in the cards.