CPCE analysis -- is the top in? is the bottom in?

This is in response to a nifty put/call ratio analysis presented by the Financial Ninja. His analysis uses the CBOE put/call ratio and suggests that a top is being put in, not a bottom.

I prefer the CBOE equity-only put/call ratio, which I think might give a truer signal of traders intentions. I've repeated The Financial Ninja's analysis using the equity-only ratios ($CPCE on Stockcharts instead of $CPC).

Like the Financial Ninja's method, this method does a good job of identifying the majority of tops and bottoms since 2007. A closer comparison of the two ratios might suggest one or the other is better a picking up a couple of the highs and lows around the turn of 2008.

The real difference in the methods, however, is the $CPCE is not let looking like it will call a stop (it's close, having started to turn over, but its not quite there).

I'm not sure which indicator is more accurate, although I am partial to the equity-only put/call ratio