put/call ratio -- the beginnings of a bottom?

Last week the put/call ratio indicated that an intermediate top might be in place (in Is the put/call ratio calling a top?). Since then the markets have sold off and the put/call ratio has risen sharply. Now, the put/call ratio is starting to give hints that a bottom is about to form.

Below is a chart with the equity-only put/call ratio ($CPCE) in the top panel (along with its 60 EMA), and the 21 EMA of the same in the second panel, superimposed over $SPX. The third and fourth panels contain the entire CBOE put/call ratio (that's equity+index, $CPC).


When the equity only put/call ratio has risen above 1.04, there has generally been a bottom. Usually these bottoms have held for quite some time, but in March, the bottom held for a week, while in September, the bottom held for 3 weeks. None the less, bottoms. Well the $CPCE is again above 1.04.

Mind you, CBOE's entire put/call ratio ($CPC) has not risen nearly as sharply as the equity-only ratio. The equity-only ratio seems to be more accurate at calling tops and bottoms, but it would be reassuring if we got a confirmatory signal fro the entire CBOE put/call ratio.

Also, if you look closely, you can draw some parallels in the $CPCE struture at each bottom. In particular, there tends to be a prolonged period where the $CPCE is above its 60 EMA. While this formation doesn't uniformly call bottoms, it's pretty good at marking turns in equities. One of these formation may presently be forming in the ratio.