Saturday, January 24, 2009

Signs of improvement - Money supply

While there were signs that the monetary supply was contracting all of 2008, this contraction accelerated during and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The Fed has frantically tried to arrest this collapse by slashing the Fed Fund rate and through various liquidity schemes, moves which were mirrored to varying degrees by other other central banks. It appears that these moves are finally gaining traction, with M3 measures starting to increase again this past month.

Below is a chart of M3 from nowandfutures.com. I've added SPX (from Stochcharts) in red, note the correlation between SPX and M3 growth in blue). Growth M3 has accelerated this year, which, given the previous correlations, is bullish for equities.


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