Wednesday, January 14, 2009

WIll EUR/JPY lead equities?

The currency pair EUR/JPY is a great risk-aversion indicator, and often a great tell for where equities will head. Below is Stockcharts chart with SPX in the top panel, EUR/JPY (as $XEU:$XJY) in the second panel, EUR/USD (as $XEU) in the third panel, and the US Dollar index in the bottom panel.

Note how sell offs in EUR/JPY correlate with (and even lead) sell offs in SPX.

Since early October, EUR/JPY has tested the 1.17 level five times, with each successful test leading to a short-term bottom in equities. EUR/JPY is again testing the 1.17 level. For the sixth time. A breakdown would portend further weakness in equities, but a succesfull test might mark another bottom in SPX.


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