Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Vix is starting to look toppy

Vix today spiked up to its upper 20 day BB and then reversed. Vix often reverses from these levels, although a change in trend usually requires a spike across the 20 day BB.

Vix is also above its 10 day BB. Reversals happen from these levels as well, but the BB can also act as support.

Both treasuries and the Yen were up today, but not decisively so. The trend in all indicators is up, but Vix is looking toppy.

Today's Vix candle might be hinting at a reversal, but its wick is shorter than its body. The alternate interpretation is to view Vix as an equities overbought/oversold indicator, with the pullback in Vix today relieving some of the overselling.

While the overall trend in these indicators is still up (and the trend in equities is still down), Vix, TLT and the Yen are hinting that a retracement may be in the cards.


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